Revenue or Spending Problem?

Analyzing New York State's $229 Billion Budget: Political Rhetoric vs Fiscal Reality

Discover the Truth

The Critical Question

Despite record revenues of $117.5 billion and $19.5 billion in reserves, political leaders like Mayor Mamdani continue calling for higher taxes on the wealthy. But do we really have a revenue problem, or is rapid spending growth the real issue?

The Numbers Don't Lie

$117.5B Tax Collections (10.4% growth)
$19.5B Total Reserves
17.4% Spending Growth (4 years)
40% Tax Revenue from Top 1%

📈 Revenue Reality

Record Performance: Tax collections hit $117.5 billion, $2.1 billion above forecast. Personal income tax grew 13.8%, business taxes surged 22.7%.

Strong Reserves: $19.5 billion in reserves completed two years ahead of schedule, with a $2.2 billion surplus.

Top Earners Contributing: The top 1% already provide about 40% of state income tax revenue.

💸 Spending Surge

Rapid Growth: Spending jumped from $209.3B in FY 2022 to $245.8B in FY 2025—a 17.4% increase in just four years.

Unsustainable Pace: Spending is increasing at nearly five times the pre-pandemic trend with little evidence of efficiency gains.

Major Drivers: Medicaid and education costs are rising, with Medicaid projected to increase $2.8 billion next year.

🔍 Transparency Gap

Missing Accountability: Politicians calling for higher taxes rarely explain why $229 billion isn't enough or where prior revenue has gone.

No Clear Metrics: Little public discussion of program effectiveness, waste, or duplication—just "tax the rich" messaging.

Avoiding Hard Questions: Focus on divisive issues rather than providing data for voters to assess if new taxes are justified.

The Bottom Line

New York's fiscal challenges stem more from rapid, unchecked spending growth than from a lack of revenue. The state has built substantial reserves and seen record tax collections, yet continues to face structural imbalances.

"The real question is not whether New York needs more money, but whether it uses the money it already has wisely. Without honest answers and transparent accounting, calls for higher taxes risk masking a deeper problem of runaway, unaccountable spending."

Before implementing new taxes, New York should focus on efficiency, program reform, and ensuring public dollars deliver measurable results.

Key Takeaways

  • New York's fiscal challenges stem more from rapid, unchecked spending growth than from a lack of revenue
  • Calls for higher taxes often lack transparency about how existing funds are used and what specific outcomes are expected
  • Sustainable solutions require honest debate, program reform, and accountability—not just new taxes on the wealthy
  • The state should demand clear accounting of where money goes and what outcomes are achieved before raising taxes
  • Politicians must explain why existing resources are insufficient and how new revenue will be used differently